ECONOMIC AND TRADE DYNAMICS: ANALYZING THE INTERRELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LOCAL ECONOMY, EXPORTS, AND GLOBAL CPO PRICES
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.35446/dayasaing.v11i2.2160Keywords:
Regional economy, exports, investment, CPO price, palm oilAbstract
The palm oil industry is a pivotal sector in Indonesia's economy, particularly in Riau Province, significantly contributing to exports and the regional economy. This study aims to analyze the impact of CPO price fluctuations on the regional economy, specifically focusing on the export and investment sectors in Riau Province. Employing a quantitative approach and multiple linear regression analysis, this research examines the relationship between regional economic variables, exports, investments, and world CPO prices throughout 2008-2022. The findings indicate that exports and investments significantly influence world CPO prices, while the regional economy does not directly impact them. This study offers crucial implications for regional economic policies, highlighting the need to strengthen export and investment sectors and implement sustainability policies within the palm oil industry. These findings will serve as a reference for formulating policies that can reduce dependence on global price fluctuations and bolster the local economy.
References
Badan Pusat Statistik (2022). Statistik Kelapa Sawit Indonesia 2022. BPS.
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Riau. (2022). Statistik Kelapa Sawit Riau 2022. BPS
Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Riau. (2023). Oil Palm Statistics of Riau Province 2023. BPS
Batubara, A. F., Yahya, M. F., Nasyaa, S. R. & Silalahi, P. R. (2023). Analisis ekspor impor kelapa sawit Indonesia dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Profit: Jurnal Manajemen, Bisnis Dan Akuntansi, 2(1), 22–31. https://doi.org/10.58192/profit.v2i1.440
Benedict, J. J., & Heilmayr, R. (2024). Indonesian palm oil exports and deforestation. SEI Features. Stockholm Environment Institute. Retrieved from https://www.sei.org/features/indonesian-palm-oil-exports-and-deforestation/
Casson, A. 2000. The hesitant boom: Indonesia's oil palm sub-sector in an era of economic crisis and political change. CIFOR Occasional Paper (29). Retrieved from https://www.cifor-icraf.org/knowledge/publication/625/
Dahlan, N.H.M., Yusuff, Y.M.I. & Khalid, A.M. (2019). Land Conflict in Palm Oil Land Procurement in Indonesia: Features, Issues and Approaches. International Journal of Supply Chain Management, 8(1), 971-981. https://doi.org/10.59160/ijscm.v8i1.2928
FAO (2021). FAOSTAT Production Data. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
GAPKI (Gabungan Pengusaha Kelapa Sawit Indonesia). (2024). Palm Oil Industry Performance In 2023 & Prospects For 2024. Retrieved from https://gapki.id/en/news/2024/02/28/palm-oil-industry-performance-in-2023-prospects-for-2024/
Hasudungan, A., Raeskyesa, D.G.S. & Fromm, I. Analysis of the foreign direct investment, oil palm expansion, and food security in Indonesia: Sumatra and Kalimantan case studies. Discover Sustainability 5, 287 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-024-00452-7
Hidayat, A., Robiani, B., Marwa, T., Suhel, S., Susetyo, D. & Mukhlis, M. (2024). Crude Palm Oil Industry Concentration and Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Indonesia as the World's Largest Producer. AGRIS online Papers in Economics and Informatics,16(1), 49-66. https://doi.org/10.7160/aol.2023.160105
McCarthy, J. F., Gillespie, P. & Zen, Z. (2012). Swimming upstream: local Indonesian production networks in “globalized” palm oil production. World Development, 40 (3), 555-569. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2011.07.012
MPOC (Malaysian Palm Oil Council). (2024, March 29). CPO price may remain volatile. Retrieved from https://www.mpoc.org.my/cpo-price-may-remain-volatile/
Prabheesh, K. & Laila, N. (2020). Asymmetric effect of crude oil and palm oil prices on economic growth: evidence from Indonesia. Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, 23 (2), 253-268. https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v23i1.1304
Purnomo, D.P., Istiqomah, Badriah, L.S. (2020). Pengaruh harga minyak dunia terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi, dan pengangguran di Indonesia. Jurnal PROFIT: Kajian Pendidikan Ekonomi dan Ilmu Ekonomi, 7(1), 13-24. https://doi.org/10.36706/jp.v7i1.11025
Rifin, A., Feryanto, Herawati & Harianto (2020). Assessing the impact of limiting Indonesian palm oil exports to the European Union. Economic Structures, 9, 26 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40008-020-00202-8
Rokhim, M. A. . (2023). Analisis Hubungan Volatilitas Harga Crude Palm Oil, Volume Ekspor dan Nilai Tukar Indonesia. Jurnal Dinamika Ekonomi Pembangunan, 6(1), 42-53. https://doi.org/10.33005/jdep.v5i2.409
Varkkey, h., Tyson, a., & Choiruzzad, S. A. (2018). Palm oil intensification and expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia: Environmental and socio-political factors influencing policy. Forest Policy and Economics, 92(July), 148-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2018.05.002
Published
Versions
- 2025-07-20 (3)
- 2025-06-25 (2)
- 2025-06-25 (1)







